Just Football Facts

JFF GLOSSARY

JFF Glossary

Just Football Facts

No opinions. No predictions. Just football facts.

Acclimation Mismatch (AM)

A measure of how different the expected game-day weather is from the environment a team has recently been practicing and playing in.

Teams perform best in conditions they experience regularly. Large changes in temperature, humidity, dew point, wind, or altitude can reduce efficiency.

Acclimation Mismatch Score (AMS)

The numerical value representing the severity of an Acclimation Mismatch.

Higher scores indicate greater environmental adjustment required.

Venue Mismatch (VM)

Measures how different the football environment is compared to what a team normally experiences.

Examples include:

  • Indoor vs Outdoor
  • Grass vs Turf
  • Altitude
  • Crowd Noise
  • Stadium familiarity
  • Lighting
  • Wind exposure

Weather is only one part of Venue Mismatch.

Weather Effects

An analysis of how expected weather conditions are likely to influence game play.

Includes:

  • Temperature
  • Humidity
  • Dew Point
  • Wind
  • Rain
  • Snow
  • Air Density
  • Radiant Heat

Body Clock Mismatch (BCM)

Measures how closely kickoff time matches a team’s internal body clock.

West Coast teams playing early Eastern kickoffs may experience greater fatigue and slower starts, As might Eash Coast Teams playing Prime time games at home, especially against west coast teams who are actually playing closer to their regular starting time.

Rest Mismatch

Compares the amount of recovery time between the two teams.

Examples:

  • Thursday games
  • Monday night recovery
  • Bye weeks
  • Mini-byes
  • Long rest

Grind Score

Measures the cumulative physical and mental difficulty surrounding a game.

Factors include:

  • Travel
  • Time zones
  • Consecutive road games
  • Overtime
  • Short rest
  • Climate changes
  • Body clock adjustments
  • Schedule difficulty

Higher Grind Scores indicate a more physically demanding situation.

Quarterback Game Brutality (QGB)

Measures the physical punishment absorbed by a quarterback during a single game.

Includes:

  • Hits
  • Sacks
  • Pressure
  • Knockdowns
  • Scrambles
  • Overall physical stress

Interestingly, High QGB from the prior game often affects team k performance positively in following games.

Accumulated Quarterback Brutality (AQB)

The running total of quarterback punishment over the season.

Unlike QGB, AQB reflects cumulative wear and tear rather than a single game’s impact.

Injury Index

A numerical measure of each team’s available personnel.

Rather than simply counting injuries, the Injury Index weighs the importance of missing players and compares overall roster availability.

Higher values represent healthier teams.

Starter Availability

Shows how many expected preseason starters are available for the game.

This provides a quick snapshot of overall team health before examining individual injuries.

Referee Profile

A statistical summary of each referee’s historical tendencies.

May include:

  • Holding penalties
  • Pass interference
  • Offensive penalties
  • Defensive penalties
  • Home win percentage
  • Over/Under tendencies

Required Cover Threshold (CT)

The minimum margin a favorite must win by—or the maximum margin an underdog can lose by—for a wager against the spread to cash.

Used throughout JFF instead of traditional betting terminology.

Required Total Threshold (TT)

The point total that determines whether an Over or Under wager wins.

Presented as a neutral statistical reference rather than a betting recommendation.

Slow Start Risk

An estimate of how likely a team is to begin the game below its normal offensive level.

Influenced by:

  • Early kickoff
  • Travel
  • Body clock
  • Weather
  • Fatigue

4th Quarter Collapse Risk

Measures the likelihood that fatigue or environmental conditions may significantly reduce late-game performance.

Can increase because of:

  • Extreme heat
  • High humidity
  • Travel
  • Accumulated fatigue
  • Short rest

Surface Mismatch

Measures the difference between the playing surface a team normally uses and the surface for the current game.

Examples include:

  • Natural grass
  • Artificial turf
  • Hybrid surfaces

Travel Fatigue

Measures the cumulative effects of distance traveled leading into the game.

Factors include:

  • Flight distance
  • Multiple road games
  • Cross-country travel
  • Time zone changes

Home Field Adjustment (HFA)

JFF’s measurement of the true advantage provided by playing at home.

Rather than assuming every home field is equal, HFA considers:

  • Stadium environment
  • Travel burden
  • Crowd
  • Climate familiarity
  • Venue familiarity

T.E.C.I.

Talent • Execution • Coaching • Injuries

A simple framework for understanding why teams win football games.

Each category is evaluated independently on a 0–10 scale for an overall score from 0–40.

Football Environment

The complete collection of conditions surrounding a game.

Includes:

  • Weather
  • Venue
  • Surface
  • Crowd
  • Altitude
  • Travel
  • Body clock
  • Rest

Football is played within an environment, not in a vacuum.

JFF Philosophy

Every statistic exists to provide context—not predictions.

JFF measures factors that influence football performance and presents them objectively so readers can make their own informed conclusions.

No hype. No hot takes. Just Football Facts.