Weather Mismatch
JFF updates weather the day before each game. Weather Mismatch measures the difference between game day conditions and what the visiting team has been practicing and playing in at home in the days leading up to the game. One key value is the Acclimation Mismatch score — it captures how far the visiting team’s recent home weather is from game day conditions. The greater the gap, the greater the mismatch. This section also tracks how weather conditions directly affect the ball, the field, and player performance across all four quarters.
Expected Weather
Updated the day before kickoff. These are the raw conditions JFF records for game day.
| Factor | Description |
|---|---|
| Sky | Clear, partly cloudy, overcast, or precipitation type |
| Cloud Cover | Percentage of cloud coverage |
| Relative Humidity | Moisture in the air as a percentage |
| Feels Like | Perceived temperature accounting for wind chill or heat index |
| Dew Point | Measure of atmospheric moisture; affects grip and player comfort |
| Wind Speed | Miles per hour at field level |
| Wind Direction on Field | Cardinal direction relative to the field orientation |
Effects of Expected Weather
How the weather inputs translate into measurable impacts on the game. JFF rates each effect for both teams.
| Effect | Description |
|---|---|
| Field Condition | Wet, dry, frozen, or muddy — affects footing and ball movement |
| Footing and Power | Ability to generate drive off the line; affected by surface and weather |
| Ball Condition | Grip, flight, and handling characteristics under current conditions |
| Passing Conditions | Overall rating for the passing game given wind, moisture, and temp |
| Vertical Passing | Deep ball effectiveness under current conditions |
| Vertical Running | Ability to break long runs; affected by footing and fatigue |
| Horizontal Running | Sweeps and outside zone; affected by surface grip |
| Kicking | Field goal and punt distance and accuracy impact |
| Fatigue Risk | Heat, humidity, and exertion index — elevated risk for key players |
| Dark Uniforms | Dark colors absorb heat; relevant in warm/sunny conditions |
| Heat Index (Colors) | Combined heat and uniform color effect on player fatigue |
| Acclimation Mismatch | Gap between the visiting team’s recent home weather and game day conditions — the larger the gap, the greater the disadvantage |
| 2nd Half | Projected weather impact in the second half as conditions shift |
| 4th Quarter | Weather impact specifically in the 4th quarter — critical for late-game bets |
Weather Mismatch Chart
Updated the day before kickoff. All values reflect game day forecast conditions.
| Factor | Home Team | Away Team | Mismatch Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky | — | — | — |
| Cloud Cover | — | — | — |
| Relative Humidity | — | — | — |
| Feels Like | — | — | — |
| Dew Point | — | — | — |
| Wind Speed | — | — | — |
| Wind Direction on Field | — | — | — |
| Field Condition | — | — | — |
| Footing and Power | — | — | — |
| Ball Condition | — | — | — |
| Passing Conditions | — | — | — |
| Vertical Passing | — | — | — |
| Vertical Running | — | — | — |
| Horizontal Running | — | — | — |
| Kicking | — | — | — |
| Fatigue Risk | — | — | — |
| Dark Uniforms | — | — | — |
| Heat Index (Colors) | — | — | — |
| Acclimation Mismatch | — | — | — |
| 2nd Half | — | — | — |
| 4th Quarter | — | — | — |
Acclimation Mismatch reflects the gap between the visiting team’s recent home weather and game day conditions. JFF updates this chart the day before kickoff.
Just Football Facts 