WEEK 5 · GAME 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
🕗 8:15PM ET · 📍 Arlington, TX
GRIND of the Game: Original availability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 81.7%, Dallas Cowboys 87.1%. Age-adjusted: 80.9% vs 87.4%.
⚖️ Head-to-Head Edge Scorecard
Section
Buccaneers
Cowboys
Leader
Game Snapshot
0 pts (0 edges)
✔ 12 pts (4 edges)
Cowboys
OFFENSE
✔ 25 pts (5 edges)
11 pts (3 edges)
Buccaneers
DEFENSE
✔ 10 pts (3 edges)
0 pts (0 edges)
Buccaneers
TEAM WORKLOAD / RECOVERY
0 pts (0 edges)
0 pts (0 edges)
Even
TRAVEL, BODY CLOCK & REST
2 pts (1 edges)
✔ 18 pts (7 edges)
Cowboys
VENUES (Mismatch):
0 pts (0 edges)
✔ 12 pts (4 edges)
Cowboys
TOTAL
37 pts (9 edges)
✔ 53 pts (18 edges)
Cowboys
Overall edge: Cowboys by 16 pts (points: Slight 1, Mild 2, Medium 3, High 4, Severe 5)
🔥 Biggest Mismatches (High/Severe)
- Optimum Offense Lineup Availability % — Buccaneers 81.5% vs Cowboys 100.0% → edge Cowboys (Severe)
- Age — Buccaneers 23 vs Cowboys 32 → edge Buccaneers (Severe)
- Prime Age for QB % — Buccaneers 65.0% vs Cowboys 100.0% → edge Cowboys (Severe)
- QB Dropbacks – Last Game — Buccaneers 0 vs Cowboys 45 → edge Buccaneers (Severe)
- QB Brutality – Last Game — Buccaneers 0 vs Cowboys 36.9 → edge Buccaneers (Severe)
- QB Dropbacks – Season — Buccaneers 0 vs Cowboys 117 → edge Buccaneers (Severe)
- QB Brutality – Season — Buccaneers 0 vs Cowboys 97.85 → edge Buccaneers (Severe)
- Games as DC — Buccaneers 165 vs Cowboys 0 → edge Buccaneers (Severe)
- Decibel Level Potential & Affect — Buccaneers 80 vs Cowboys 105 → edge Cowboys (Severe)
- Travel Miles — Tampa Bay Buccaneers travels 918 miles; Dallas Cowboys is the host team. → edge Cowboys (High)
- VENUES (Mismatch): — Tampa Bay Buccaneers moves from Open Air / Grass / Med Fast to Dallas Cowboys: Dome / Turf / FAST. → edge Cowboys (High)
- Optimum Defensive Lineup Availability % — Buccaneers 81.8% vs Cowboys 74.1% → edge Buccaneers (High)
- Games Until Bye Week — Buccaneers 5 vs Cowboys 9 → edge Cowboys (High)
📋 Game Snapshot
Factor
Detail
Mismatch
Edge
Rest in Hours
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 103.3 hours; Dallas Cowboys: 103.3 hours.
None
Even
Travel Miles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers travels 918 miles; Dallas Cowboys is the host team.
High
Cowboys ▶
Body Clock Mismatch in Hours
Body-clock shift: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.3 hours; Dallas Cowboys 6.3 hours.
Mild
Cowboys ▶
VENUES (Mismatch):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers moves from Open Air / Grass / Med Fast to Dallas Cowboys: Dome / Turf / FAST.
High
Cowboys ▶
Climate Mismatch
Climate mismatch is calculated from each team’s home-environment baseline.
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Weather Acclimation Mismatch
Indoor/roof-controlled conditions — no weather acclimation mismatch.
—
—
Referee Impact
Alex Moore — profile loaded below
Profile
Even
OFFENSE
Metric
Buccaneers (Away)
Cowboys (Home)
Mismatch
Edge
Optimum Offense Lineup Availability %
81.5%
✔ 100.0%
Severe
Cowboys ▶
Optimum Offense Lineup Players Unavailable
1
✔ 0
Slight
Cowboys ▶
Expected Starting Quarterback
Jaylon Daniels
Dak Prescott
—
—
Age
✔ 23
32
Severe
◀ Buccaneers
Prime Age for QB %
65.0%
✔ 100.0%
Severe
Cowboys ▶
Games Played – Season
4
4
None
Even
Date Last Played
10/4/2026
10/4/2026
—
—
QB Dropbacks – Last Game
✔ 0
45
Severe
◀ Buccaneers
QB Brutality – Last Game
✔ 0
36.9
Severe
◀ Buccaneers
QB Dropbacks – Season
✔ 0
117
Severe
◀ Buccaneers
QB Brutality – Season
✔ 0
97.85
Severe
◀ Buccaneers
DEFENSE
Metric
Buccaneers (Away)
Cowboys (Home)
Mismatch
Edge
Optimum Defensive Lineup Availability %
✔ 81.8%
74.1%
High
◀ Buccaneers
Optimum Defensive Lineup Unavailable
✔ 2
3
Slight
◀ Buccaneers
Defensive Coordinator
Todd Bowles
Christian Parker
—
—
Defensive Front
3-4
3-4
None
Even
Games as DC
✔ 165
0
Severe
◀ Buccaneers
DC Record vs Opposing Expected QB
Pending current QB matchup history
Pending
—
—
DC’s Most Recent Game vs Expected QB
Pending current QB matchup history
Pending
—
—
QB Brutality Inflicted by DC in Prior Meeting
Pending current QB matchup history
Pending
—
—
TEAM WORKLOAD / RECOVERY
Metric
Buccaneers (Away)
Cowboys (Home)
Mismatch
Edge
Last Opponet/Result
vs Green Bay Packers — L 14-17
vs Houston Texans — W 34-30
—
—
Road or Home
Home
Away
—
—
Actual Game Duration (Game Clock)
Pending Week 4 workload import
Pending Week 4 workload import
—
—
Real-Time Game Duration (Kickoff to Final)
Pending Week 4 workload import
Pending Week 4 workload import
—
—
Offensive Plays
Pending Week 4 workload import
Pending Week 4 workload import
—
—
Defensive Plays
Pending Week 4 workload import
Pending Week 4 workload import
—
—
Time 0n Field (Offense)
Pending Week 4 workload import
Pending Week 4 workload import
—
—
Time 0n Field (Defense)
Pending Week 4 workload import
Pending Week 4 workload import
—
—
Previous Game GRIND
Moderate
Slight
—
—
TRAVEL, BODY CLOCK & REST
Metric
Buccaneers (Away)
Cowboys (Home)
Mismatch
Edge
Return Travel Miles from Previous Game
✔ 0
224
Mild
◀ Buccaneers
Travel Miles to Game
918
✔ 0
Medium
Cowboys ▶
Travel Type (Upcoming / Return)
Upcoming travel
✔ Host
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Travel Load (Upcoming / Return)
Moderate
✔ None
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Home Time Zone
EST
✔ CT
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Body Clock Time at Kick-Off (ET)
8:15 PM
✔ 7:15 PM
Medium
Cowboys ▶
Body Clock Mismatch in Hours
7.25
✔ 6.25
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Difference in Usual Start Time
LATER
LATER
None
Even
Rest in Hours Since Last Game
103.25
103.25
None
Even
Schedule Sequence (Last Game)
70
70
None
Even
Bye Week
10
14
High
Even
Games Until Bye Week
5
✔ 9
High
Cowboys ▶
Games Played Since Bye Rest
4
4
None
Even
Back to Back (Away or Home)
Yes
Yes
None
Even
International
Yes
Yes
None
Even
VENUES (Mismatch):
Metric
Buccaneers (Away)
Cowboys (Home)
Mismatch
Edge
Home Structure
Open Air
✔ Dome
Medium
Cowboys ▶
Home Surface
Grass
✔ Turf
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Home Surface Speed (Ideal Conditions)
Med Fast
✔ FAST
Mild
Cowboys ▶
Decibel Level Potential & Affect
80
✔ 105
Severe
Cowboys ▶
Home Climate
Heat and humidity elevate core temperature, dehydration and cardiovascular fatigue
Climate-controlled: minimal lung, core-temperature or fatigue stress
—
—
EXPECTED WEATHER:
Sky
Indoor — retractable roof (played Thursday)
Cloud Cover
N/A
Realitive Humidity
Controlled
Feels Like:
72
Dew Point
N/A
Wind Speed
0
Wind Gusts
0
Wind Direction on Field
None
Affects of Expected Weather
Controlled indoor conditions; weather had no material effect.
Acclimation & Fatigue
0
Passing Conditions
0
Vertical Passing
0
Vertical Running
0
Horizonal Running
0
Kicking
0
Pass Rush
0
Coverage/Route Running
0
Tackling
0
ON FIELD REFEREE CREW:
On-Field Referee Crew
Alex Moore
Style Summary
Pending
Summary
Pending
Overall Volume
Penalties Per Game
Medium
Penalty Yards
Medium
Game Flow Impact
Slow Games
Medium
“Let ’em play” Ref
Medium
Scoring Potential
Medium
High-Impact Penalty Tendencies
Pre-Snap Strictness
Medium
DPI (boosts passing offenses)
TBD (early signs: Moderate)
Roughing (boosts passing offenses)
Low
Secondary Contact
Moderate
First Downs via Penalty
Medium
Explosive Plays from DPI
Medium
Most Called Penalties
Defensive Pass Interference
Moderate
Illegal Contact / Defensive Holding
Moderate
Roughing the Passer
Low
Offensive Holding
Medium
Affect on Football Styles
Man-Heavy Defense
0 Neutral
Zone Defense
0 Neutral
Run-Heavy Offense
0 Neutral
Pass-Heavy Offense
0 Neutral
Aggressive Pass Rush
0 Neutral
Mobile QB
0 Neutral
High-Tempo Offense
0 Neutral
Undisciplined Teams
0 Neutral
